This blog entry sums up the check list for anticipation and serves as a reference. There are two parts. The first part includes some notes. After some time, you won’t need these notes any longer. Then, the second part with some key words will suffice. I will present the working techniques for examining these questions in detail after a few more blog entries. Please remember: This is only a working technique. Understanding the model is much more important.
1. Are patterns or traits available? All the time?
Look for available patterns and traits. Any kind of information is helpful. Be careful, because this point only checks for available sensory information. Don’t interpret and add things. Kahnemann puts it straight by using the term “What you see is all there is” (WYSIATI). Depending on the circumstances, the tendency of unknowingly adding information that is not available cannot be avoided.
2. Is there enough time to identify and interpret the stimuli?
Is there sufficient time go through the different steps of the circular process? It is more likely that the details get blurry with faster movements. In this case, the patterns don’t get past the circular process. External viewers may have the impression that it wasn’t too fast. But being directly involved decreases the performance of the circular process significantly. Again, the interpretation in this question is about connecting the dots of available sensory information. The word “interpret” may not be a good choice at this point. I want to strictly differentiate between information and added content by internal models. Internal sensory information is particularly vulnerable to these problems. The transition to guessing and jumping to conclusions is carried out quickly.
3. Is causality given?
Is it possible to reduce the number of alternatives to just one possibility? A tree diagram, based on the available information, is a first analysis tool.
4. Is it possible to differentiate between the alternatives?
This is the point where you can start interpreting things. If the number of alternatives cannot be reduced by available sensory information, you have to take a second look at them by using every other kind of available information (rules, known behaviors, etc.).
5. Is there a slack time for updating the internal model and the response selection?
Is there some time between the upcoming information about what is going to happen and the start of the response execution? This question is tricky and needs some experience. Usually, at this point, interpretation cannot be prevented. But, there are not so many combinations that suit the exact given situation. The range starts with very early availability of advance information and ends with no advance information at all. Depending on the classification, the slack time dominates the process or plays no role.
6. Is an exit point for the circular process available?
This question should clarify whether the received information justifies proceeding from the internal model to the response selection. A suitable response cannot be selected without enough information.
7. Is there a stop criterion for the response selection?
This question targets the available criteria that allow for a response selection. Some situations can be solved with several movements. But, you still have to make a choice. This choice must be based upon some kind of criteria. This question will be one of the most important indications whether movements can be completely automated.
8. Is the internal model valid during response execution?
The internal model tries to project future events and forms actions to act accordingly. The question is whether the ongoing “real” events correspond to the projected events. If not, the selected response impinges on the real events.
9. Is the time for response execution sufficient?
This question checks the available time for the response execution. Depending on the foregoing time-consuming process, the remaining time for executing the response may be too short and a response, even though correctly chosen, will fail.
- Patterns available?
- Identify and interpret?
- Differentiation of alternatives?
- Slack time?
- Exit point?
- Stop criterion?
- Valid model?
- Time for execution?